Most AI conversations happen at the surface.

Chatbots.
Image tools.
Writing assistants.

Visible.
Debatable.
Easy to see. Easy to understand.

We don’t crash into what we see coming. We crash into what we assume isn’t there.

Ships weren’t sunk by the tip of the iceberg.
They were sunk by what sat below the waterline.

AI is moving the same way.

What’s visible feels incremental.
What’s underneath is compounding.

Workflows collapsing into minutes.
Roles quietly reshaped.
Skills aging without notice.

The infrastructure is changing faster than the headlines.

The risk isn’t being wrong about AI.
It’s forming opinions from what’s freely visible.

Free tools lag behind and show the surface.
Paid tools reveal more of what’s already moving underneath.

In AI time, a year is a lifetime.

Those working below the surface feel the pull.
Small gains stack.
Automations unlock more automations.

Observers see calm water and assume stability.

That gap—between use and observation—is where disruption forms.

By the time the iceberg is fully visible,
there’s no room left to turn.

One idea: Before forming an opinion about AI, ask: what am I not seeing?

As always, your mileage may vary, so use what’s helpful. Discard the rest.